TARGETS FOR WIND ENERGY

EWEA predicts that if there is continued positive policysupport, 75,000 MW of wind power could be installed in the EU-15 by the end of the decade, of which 10,000 MWwould be installed offshore (see Figure 5). Also by 2010,the latest projections from the European Commission sug-gest that wind power in Europe may reach a total of69,900 MW. EWEA predicts a total of 180,000 MW will bereached by 2020, of which 70,000 MW would be offshore.


In 1997, EWEA adopted the target set out in the EuropeanCommission’s White Paper on renewable sources of ener-gy of 40,000 MW by 2010. Three years later, EWEArevised its target to 60,000 MW by 2010 (including 5,000 MW offshore) and 150,000 MW by 2020 (includ-ing 50,000 MW offshore). These forecasts were thenrevised to those above in 2003. On each occasion, tar-gets set by EWEA have been conservative, and were out-stripped by higher growth in reality.


In terms of Europe’s electricity consumption, the EWEAprojection would see wind energy contributing 5.5% in 2010 and 12.1% in 2020. This is equivalent to the electricity needs of more than 195 million people.Wind energy would also account for 50% of the netincrease in European generating capacity during the period 2001 - 2010 and just over 70% in the period 2011 - 2020.

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World Market Forecasts
2007 - 2012

Future market assessments are essentially scenarios that are shaped by the variety of assumptions and data used. This report presents two market scenarios; a conventional and an advanced scenario to the years 2007 and 2012. The conventional scenario could be classified as “favourable business-as-usual” where the current strong development of the wind power market to date continues as long as commitment to the sector by a number of governments continues to strengthen, and that such support is converted into actual deployment. But there is no potent policy intervention on the scale of that envisaged in the advanced scenario in Wind Force 12, which is a scenario for a greatly increased market due to higher political and policy support than is experienced today.

A market assessment with a five year horizon is generally regarded as being a more accurate forecast. Beyond that, the predictive ability is greatly reduced because the defining factors are difficult to foresee with accuracy.

• Under the conventional scenario, the average annual growth rate for cumulative capacity is 20.6% in the peri￾od 2003 - 07 to reach MW 80,050 MW installed world￾wide, and 15% in the period 2008 - 12 to reach 160,900 MW.

• In the advanced scenario the average annual growth rate for cumulative capacity is 27% in the period 2003 - 07 to reach 106,000 MW installed worldwide, and 24% in the period 2008 - 12 to reach 311,000 MW.

Under the conventional scenario, European markets will continue to dominate. The leading markets will remain Germany and Spain, although important markets in France, the UK, The Netherlands, Italy and Sweden will emerge. The market forecast indicates a slight slowing down of the onshore European market, but an increase in activity in countries which have not played a major role to date. There will be a time lag before the offshore market takes off to replace it. There will be significant growth in the US. New markets are starting to develop in Australia, Japan, Canada and South America. There is relatively lit￾tle installed capacity in these countries and, hence, the potential for future growth is large. Other countries that are considering serious investment include Canada, Brazil, Tunisia, China, Egypt, Morocco, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.

The considerable difference between the two scenarios for 2012 highlights the fact that market development for the global wind sector is constrained by policy decisions. This constraint reduces the potential global market in 2012 by 50%.

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